ATLS – the Adaptive Traffic Light System – is a decision-support tool that aims to provide operators with a reliable and up-to-date estimate of the risk of induced seismicity during reservoir operations. ATLS tools are fully probabilistic, data-driven (in the sense that microseismic date are integrated in real-time to update geomechanical and seismicity forecasting models) and risk-based (integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability). The system should therefore at any point in time integrate all available information on the reservoir evolutions into the best possible forecast. Combined with enhanced and largely automated seismic monitoring approaches, ATLS promises toreact much earlier than classical Traffic Light Systems to concerning developments.
An ATLS is the easiest thought of as a probabilistic seismic hazard and risk study updated and recalibrated on the fly as new data arrives. An ATLS inherently also contains a classical Traffic Light Sytem but in addition deploys all the components also present in a-priori seismic hazard and risk studies, such as forecasted rates of events, ground motion modelling, exposure, building vulnerabilities. The output can likewise be portrayed as forecasted events, hazard or risk curves or maps. Scenario shakemaps and loss assessments are inherent capabilities of ATLS. Different from classical time-indepenendet probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, for induced seismic risk assessment in real time, updated seismic data from a real-time seismic network, hydraulic data as well as the planned injection strategy is delivered as time-dependent input to a range of forecast models that will deliver seismicity rate forecasts for different forecast horizons (hours, days, yearly) or stochastic event sets to the hazard and risk calculation.